Chart is the Wind Variant Shown as lengths for this example Distance in Furlongs Mu Wind 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.018 20 2.35 5.85 5.7 4.7 3.3 2.6 3.75 6.15 10 1.05 2.6 2.45 1.9 1.1 0.65 1.1 2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -0.75 -2.05 -1.8 -0.95 0.15 0.65 0.35 -0.35 -20 -1.35 -3.6 -2.95 -0.95 1.6 2.65 2.25 1 Chart does not include any changes to the track resistance from changes in moisture and other factors. The race time is only effected by the wind component (aerodynamic drag). Assumed to be steady with no gusting. 2014 Kentucky Derby Race Time Off at 6:33pm 2 4 6 8 10 Beyer Figure 23.04 47.37 71.8 97.45 123.66 97 2014 Kentucky Derby With Wind Component (10 and 20) Removed wind 2 4 6 8 10 10 22.8 46.85 71.4 97.3 123.26 100 20 22.6 46.25 70.8 96.9 122.4 106 Estimate of California Chrome Race Time Using Lengths Behind 2 4 6 8 10 23.4 47.7 72.2 97.45 123.66 Estimate CC time with no wind (10 and 20) component 2 4 6 8 10 10 23.2 47.2 71.8 97.3 123.26 Under wrapped at wire 20 22.9 46.6 71.2 96.9 122.4 Kentucky Derby 1995: Here is the lastest on the running line for the 1995 Kentucky Derby. I reviewed every derby from 1981 to 1994. Did not have 1982 and 1983 and had partial charts on some other years. Use the running line as the par running line for the winning horse not the running line of the race. I have also included the previous winners estimated running lines. Energy Model: Weight 126 #, Gate=30 ft., mu is track resistance factor higher number=slower track Times in seconds Est. Est.* mu 1/4 1/2 3/4 1mi 11/8 11/4 BSF SR-TV .0179 23.75 47.20 71.60 96.55 109.20 122.00 108 102-02 .0185 23.80 47.40 71.90 97.05 109.80 122.65 108 99-05 .0190 23.85 47.55 72.20 97.45 110.25 123.20 108 96-08<-Normal .0200 24.00 47.85 72.75 98.30 111.25 124.30 108 90-14 CD .0210 24.20 48.20 73.35 99.15 112.20 125.45 108 84-20 Intervals 1mi-11/4 3/4-11/8 .0179 23.45 24.40 24.95 12.65 12.80 (25.45) (37.60) .0185 23.60 24.50 25.15 12.75 12.85 (25.60) (37.90) .0190 23.70 24.65 25.25 12.80 12.95 (25.75) (38.05) .0200 23.85 24.90 25.55 12.95 13.05 (26.00) (38.50) .0210 24.00 25.15 25.80 13.05 13.25 (26.30) (38.85) The mu=.0185 race approximates the average of all previous winners. I have added two races that were on each side of the Derby. They were both sprints and we are assuming they had the same wind conditions as the Derby for this exercise. I do not know what the wind conditions were for these two races. Race 12 6f Oalw Kentucky Derby Day Off at 7:28PM Wind Aided Time Tail Wind 2f 4f 5f 6f 22.54 46.12 57.63 69.63 Positive means it slows the horse down while negative speeds the horse up (helps) Wind Variant for Tail Winds 0 2f 4f 5f 6f -10 -0.85 -2.15 -1.85 -1.05 -20 -1.4 -3.7 -3 -0.9 Race Time Removing Wind Component 2f 4f 5f 6f 22.54 46.12 57.63 69.63 race time with wind -10 22.71 46.55 57.90 69.84 wind removed -20 22.82 46.86 58.23 69.81 wind removed Race 9 7f Grade II Kentucky Derby off at 3:50pm wind Aided Time Tail Wind 2f 4f 6f 7f 22.29 44.69 68.71 81.15 Positive means it slows the horse down while negative speeds the horse up (helps) Wind Variant for Tail Winds 0 2f 3f 4f 5f 6f 7f -10 -0.85 -1.65 -2.15 -1.85 -1.05 0.15 -20 -1.4 -2.9 -3.7 -3 -0.9 1.7 2f 4f 6f 7f 22.29 44.69 68.71 81.15 race time with wind -10 22.46 45.01 68.92 81.12 wind removed -20 22.57 45.27 68.89 80.81 wind removed