Here is how my Energy Program calculates the effect of weight on running time. I used the model for Tejano Run based on the Jim Beam. The gate distance has been changed to represent the CD gate distance for the KD and the weight of 126 pounds. mu=.018 , Gate=30 ft. Wt. 1/4 1/2 3/4 1mi 11/8 11/4 126 24.45 48.25 72.90 98.10 110.90 123.85 <-- seconds 121 24.35 48.05 72.60 97.75 110.55 123.45 <-- Jim Beam Wt. Delta=5 .10 .20 .30 .35 .35 .40 <-- seconds 1/2 1 11/2 2 2 2 <-- Lengths A 5 pound of weight change corresponds to a 11/2 lengths at 6 f and 2 lengths at over a mile. A 2 length impact at 11/4 miles is about 3 BSF points. Larry BTW, I noticed two typing errors on my post for the Kentucky Derby. Estimates for the KD, message #7835. No. 1- Correct the 1/4 time from 23.15 to 23.75 in the mu=.0179 line. No. 2- Correct the Spend A Buck mile time from 96.60 to 94.40 or 94.60(?) From owner-derby@inslab.uky.edu Wed May 3 01:03:08 1995 Return-Path: Received: from simpatico.inslab.uky.edu by oasys.dt.navy.mil (5.61/oasys.dt.navy.mil) id AA18821; Wed, 3 May 95 01:03:05 EDT Received: by inslab.uky.edu (NX5.67e/NX3.0M) id AA23507; Wed, 3 May 95 01:00:03 -0400 Date: Tue, 2 May 1995 21:56:40 -0700 (PDT) From: Rube Boxer Subject: Re: Derby Digest V52 #31 To: derby@inslab.uky.edu (Horse Racing List) In-Reply-To: <9505021050.AA16189@inslab.uky.edu> Message-Id: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Comments: Derby Message #7836 Sender: owner-derby@inslab.uky.edu Errors-To: derby-problems@inslab.uky.edu As part of some research that led to my paper "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing", the analysis of weight carried by a horse came right out of the mathematics. The following table summarizes the results: Time Change per One Pound Weight Change (Normalized to 116 pounds) Race Distance Time Change (furlongs) (ticks, i.e., fifths of seconds) 5 0.187 5.5 0.231 6 0.280 6.5 0.336 7 0.398 7.5 0.467 8 0.543 8.5 0.627 9 0.719 10 0.930 12 1.479 15 2.716 16 3.276